Hello Everyone,
I'm excited to share some reflections from the past half year. I hope you'll find it insightful and enjoyable :)
Intro
This summary encompasses my key reflections for the past half year. I've organized them into four categories: Health, Mental Health, Career, and Investing. Within each category, I've distilled my thoughts into three primary lessons. I hope that these reflections can resonate with you, encouraging personal introspection and offering valuable insights for your own life and thinking.
Over the years, I've intermittently engaged in this practice, and I have determined to share one to challenge myself in articulating it more effectively. I'm eager to gauge your interest and discover if any of these reflections prove intriguing to you.
Outline
Health
Lesson 1: Listen to Your Body
Lesson 2: Go Slower to Go Faster
Lesson 3: Commit to Several Areas
Mental Health
Lesson 1: Embracing Mindfulness
Lesson 2: Experience the Ups and Downs of Podcasting
Lesson 3: Creative Expression and Gratitude
Career
Lesson 1: Transitioning Roles: From Data Engineer to Customer Success Manager
Lesson 2: The DEIA Journey
Lesson 3: My Life is Not That Risky
Investing
Lesson 1: The Challenges and Rewards of Understanding Tech Companies
Lesson 2: Investment Positions and Perception Shifts
Lesson 3: The Reflexive Nature of Bitcoin
Health
Lesson 1: Listen to Your Body
For the past two summers, I struggled with feeling noticeably 'reduced'. I easily attributed this feeling to external factors, such as writing my master's thesis or starting my first job. This was also a period when a lot of people were sick with Covid or other illnesses following the reopening. Both times, it triggered a vicious cycle in which I gradually became more exhausted, but I just pushed through even harder.
However, during the second summer, these explanations weren't satisfactory, and I decided to go to the doctor for a more thorough check. It turned out I have a strong pollen allergy. In retrospect, I probably should have checked this earlier, but there were a lot of other plausible explanations. What made this so difficult to diagnose is that I had not been troubled with this before, so it's likely something I've developed over the last few years.
The delicate balance between being too soft (sometimes a workout is exactly what you need) and not listening to your body (sometimes a workout is the last thing you need) will be a continuous learning process.
So, when I finally did listen to my body and got the correct diagnosis, I began taking pollen medication. It has been fantastic to have a normal and energetic summer.
Lesson 2: Go Slower to Go Faster
The first half of this year underscored the importance of recovery and restitution. Despite periods of rigorous training, I would often plateau sooner than expected, making less progress than desired.
Drawing from lesson 1, I placed greater emphasis on recovery by incorporating enough sleep, stretching/yoga, and cold showers into my routine. Interestingly, while I trained less intensely in some areas, I found my body responding positively. The result? Gradual but noticeable improvement.
Lesson 3: Commit to Several Areas
My training journey has oscillated between soccer, long-distance running, cycling, strength training, and skiing. This often left me wondering if focusing on one discipline could negatively impact my performance in others.
Peter Attia's book 'Outlive' provided a refreshing perspective. It emphasized the importance of developing multiple aspects (anaerobic, aerobic, strength, and stability) of health concurrently. This insight helped me to commit to multiple disciplines simultaneously, dispelling the fear of being a 'jack of all trades, master of none'.
I appreciate the reframing from worrying about one area negatively impacting another, to seeking excellence in multiple areas. A small (and perhaps obvious) mental shift, but it has changed how I view training going forward. As a result, it will be key to train so that this mix is possible - and hopefully even beneficial — for example, by tailoring strength training to progress in running and cycling.
Mental Health
Lesson 1: Embracing Mindfulness
The most compelling concept I've encountered is the ability to 'separate' oneself from one's brain. This involves adopting an observer's perspective towards one's thoughts and emotions, especially when they're overwhelming. The process involves stepping back mentally, acknowledging the thoughts, and observing them dispassionately or simply focusing on the breath. This perspective shift, while challenging to grasp and even more so to implement, equips one to navigate negative or difficult episodes.
Two quotes from the book 'A New Earth' by Eckhart Tolle encapsulate the ethos of mindfulness and have deeply resonated with me. The first, 'This too shall pass,' is a reminder of life's inherent transience. While the fleeting nature of experiences can incite a desire to cling to positive moments, accepting this impermanence encourages a fuller, more committed engagement with the present, freeing us from fears of the future. The second quote proposes a paradox - that true greatness is attained not by pursuing grand ambitions, but by honoring the 'small things of the present moment': “The paradox is that the foundation for greatness is honoring the small things of the present moment instead of pursuing the idea of greatness”.
On this journey, I've come to appreciate the value of discomfort - situations or people that push us beyond our comfort zones. One of the most fulfilling pursuits in life is deepening our self-understanding. While everyday routines offer a certain degree of introspection, it is often through uncomfortable challenges that we gain the most profound insights about ourselves. This reframe transforms discomfort into a valuable opportunity for personal growth, emphasizing the potential of mindfulness.
Lesson 2: Experience the Ups and Downs of Podcasting
My journey into mindfulness began by engaging with the works of popular psychologists Rebekka Egeland and Carina Carl, among others. Through the podcast DEIA-podden, I had done some internal and external podcasts, but all with people with whom there was a prior relationship. At some point, we made a list of people to contact and hoped that some would say yes. Surprisingly, I got an almost immediate yes from Rebekka and Carina, which culminated in a podcast episode on mindfulness with Carina Carl. If you just ask, you might be surprised by the response.
Despite my enthusiasm for podcasting, finding time for logistics and planning amidst a busy schedule presented a significant challenge. Additionally, after spending weekdays indoors at work, the allure of spending a free weekend outdoors, immersed in activities like skiing or biking, often superseded the appeal of indoor recording sessions. This underscored the aspect of balancing passion projects with daily commitments: effective time management and prioritization can be an uphill battle.
Over time, my struggles with time allocation gradually transformed the podcasting process from a fun pursuit into more of a task that needed to be checked off. Recognizing this shift, the rest of the DEIA team and I decided to take a break. This emphasizes the importance of maintaining a sustainable rhythm, rather than focusing solely on the end goal. Sometimes, it's vital to step back to ensure the journey remains enjoyable and rewarding.
Lesson 3: Creative Expression and Gratitude
As I was reading the biography of Steve jobs this quote really resonated with me:
“What drove me? I think most creative people want to express appreciation for being able to take advantage of the work that's been done by others before us. I didn't invent the language or mathematics I use. I make little of my own food, none of my own clothes. Everything I do depends on other members of our species and the shoulders that we stand on. And a lot of us want to contribute something back to our species and to add something to the flow. It's about trying to express something in the only way that most of us know how-because we can't write Bob Dylan songs or Tom Stoppard plays. We try to use the talents we do have to express our deep feelings, to show our appreciation of all the contributions that came before us, and to add something to that flow. That's what has driven me.”
We are all interconnected, and everything we accomplish is built on the labor and insights of countless others. Even the most independent among us rely on societal constructs and shared resources to survive and thrive. From the food we eat to the language we speak, we are deeply dependent on the contributions of others.
This sense of indebtedness can also be empowering. It can ignite a desire to give something back, to add to the collective knowledge and tools. Not everyone can write songs like Bob Dylan, but everyone has unique talents and perspectives. Leveraging these, we can express our deep feelings, show appreciation for those who came before us and contribute to the continuum of human progression.
Career
Lesson 1: Transitioning Roles: From Data Engineer to Customer Success Manager
My initial 1.5 years at Ignite were spent immersed in the world of data engineering, working on data setups, scripting in Python, and managing data pipelines. Over time, my responsibilities broadened to encompass wider aspects of customer engagement and interaction. The transition to a Customer Success Manager role was a natural progression, allowing me to utilize my technical skills while venturing into a role that demanded a more holistic understanding of customer relations.
Moving from a deeply technical role to one that's significantly customer-facing involves a substantial shift in work style. As a Data Engineer, I enjoyed the luxury of diving deep into technical challenges while remaining somewhat insulated from company-wide discussions. As a Customer Success Manager, the dynamics change dramatically. The role requires staying on top of every development and swiftly addressing pressing issues, making it challenging to maintain the same depth of focus that I was accustomed to in my former role.
However, after spending six months as a Customer Success Manager, I've started to appreciate the intricacies of this role. The breadth of exposure, the necessity to understand context, and the active participation in decision-making discussions have all proven to be uniquely rewarding. Being on top of so many areas has broadened my understanding of the company and its operations, which I find fascinating.
While I'm still exploring the 'perfect' role for me, the current position aligns well with my interest in blending technical and commercial knowledge. It's an exciting journey of continuous learning and adaptation, and I am looking forward to further exploring this role and growing within it.
Lesson 2: The DEIA Journey
We celebrated a successful launch of our new collection, in collaboration with the artist Erik Bergan. Our clothing line reached a significant milestone when it made its retail debut at F5 - marking our very first in-store presence. We were also privileged to host a stand at the popular ‘Piknikk i Parken’ festival. These accomplishments reflect the continued commitment from the team at DEIA.
We also faced the reality that DEIA's current trajectory is not economically sustainable. DEIA was born from an aspiration to create something meaningful, focusing on designing a unique repertoire of clothes that spotlight mental health. However, it has become evident that we need to rethink our approach.
This realization necessitates an exploration of strategies to focus on DEIA's financial sustainability. While we have a firm belief in our ability to create compelling clothes that underscore the importance of mental health, we acknowledge that this niche might be too narrow. Consequently, we are considering expanding our brand messaging to engage a broader audience, ensuring we uphold our core mission while also achieving financial sustainability. This process is dynamic and will require constant learning and adaptation.
Lesson 3: My Life is Not That Risky
Immersing myself in Kjell Inge Røkke's biography and his shareholder letters over the past six months has provided captivating insight into his daring entrepreneurial journey. From humble beginnings as a fisherman, Røkke displayed a remarkable propensity for risk-taking. He managed to bootstrap his savings to buy his first trawlers and laid the foundation for his American Seafoods Group. As the main shareholder of Aker ASA, he continues to reshape and expand the conglomerate, albeit with more calculated risks now.
John Fredriksen's saga, as depicted in the book 'Storeulv,' echoes the same inclination for risk-taking. Launching his career in the oil trading industry, he catapulted his fortune during the volatile Iran-Iraq War period in the 1980s. Fredriksen chose to operate under hazardous conditions, leading him to claim the title of the world's largest tanker owner.
Reflecting on Røkke and Fredriksen's stories, it is clear that my level of risk-taking is relatively conservative in comparison. Their willingness to risk everything, not just once but several times over, is a testament to their success. It prompts me to re-evaluate my risk appetite, asking myself: Could I push my boundaries further and venture out of my comfort zone? Although I may not be comfortable with risking everything, are there opportunities I overlook because I perceive them as excessively risky? As an ending note, unnecessary risk should always be avoided, but risk as a byproduct of great opportunity can be warranted.
Investing
Lesson 1: The Challenges and Rewards of Understanding Tech Companies
Decoding tech companies can often feel like solving a complex puzzle, as the following experiences illuminate:
Looking back, my decision to sell Tesla prematurely reflects a shortfall in recognizing the full breadth of its potential. Tesla's accomplishments, from electric cars to batteries to the development of self-driving cars, are truly remarkable. Arguably, Tesla is one of the most interesting companies in the world. Nevertheless, based on current valuations, I find it difficult to rationalize creating a position. This could indicate that I have only barely understood what has happened and not the potential for the upcoming years, a shortfall I also encountered last time.
I have followed the small tech companies Argeo and Nordic Unmanned for some years, which has provided insightful observations. These companies operate in the sectors of Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) and drones, respectively. They have piqued my interest due to my academic background in Cybernetics and Robotics. Although their technological solutions are pioneering, their equity values have experienced substantial dilution as they continually raised capital at progressively lower share prices. This underscores a vital truth: innovative technology alone does not guarantee success; a sustainable market demand for the product or service is equally imperative.
Currently, I am working at Ignite, a B2B SaaS scale-up. Being an insider of a company I'm investing in has offered new perspectives. Initially, Ignite primarily concentrated on data analytics within the procurement space. However, over the past six months, we've strategically reoriented ourselves towards compliance, addressing business needs in Supplier Management and Carbon Accounting. Observing a company solely from the outside may make it challenging to comprehend the strategic direction of the company fully. Moreover, the orderliness and simplicity presented in company briefings may not accurately reflect the chaotic reality.
The book 'The Power Law' by Sebastian Mallaby is a vivid exploration of venture capital and presents fascinating stories of visionaries who foresaw the technological future. One such visionary, Vinod Khosla, is particularly intriguing. While many acknowledged the impending importance of the internet, Khosla went even further and predicted the exponential growth of bandwidth, a trend unnoticed by many. His keen understanding and foresight into technology trends led to great investments into new companies. This underscores the importance of in-depth comprehension of emerging technologies, beyond what's currently visible. However, it's crucial to acknowledge the 'survivorship bias' when examining such success stories – the triumphs are readily visible, but the failures which shared the same traits go unnoticed.
Lesson 2: Investment Positions and Perception Shifts
In the investment world, there's a fascinating phenomenon where your holdings can influence your perspectives. You tend to anticipate a depreciation in the value of assets you don't possess, while you expect an appreciation for those you do. Interestingly, I observed a shift in my perspective after buying a property. Despite there being no substantial change in the housing market (if anything, it had worsened), my inclination transitioned from expecting a crash to believing in a persistent, albeit slower, upward trend.
Building on this, had someone informed me about the rapid and significant rise in rates that we've observed over the past year, I would have predicted a far more severe impact on the housing market (an event that could still transpire; I just underestimated how long these developments can take). Consequently, if the real estate market were as liquid as equities, I would likely have downsized my position. Interestingly, the illiquidity of the real estate market might be precisely what's keeping it so stable - until a critical mass are forced to sell. This scenario is particularly intriguing to track, especially in Oslo, with its expensive housing market, record debt-to-income ratio, and the highest proportion of individuals on floating rates in the world. Yet, simultaneously, we rank among the world's wealthiest people.
Lesson 3: The Reflexive Nature of Bitcoin
Understanding Reflexivity
Before exploring the unique market characteristics of Bitcoin, it's essential to understand the concept of reflexivity. This theory, presented by investor George Soros in his book "The Alchemy of Finance," proposes that asset prices and their fundamental value influence each other in a self-reinforcing feedback loop. This theory suggests that prices actively contribute to the fundamentals of the underlying assets, and the revised fundamentals, in turn, drive changes in prices. In contrast to the traditional view of price equilibrium in markets, reflexivity asserts that prices are not a passive reflection of ‘underlying value’.
While this theory faces considerable criticism, an alternative perspective might be not to question if markets are efficient, but to consider when they are efficient and when they aren't.
Bitcoin provides a compelling case for reflexivity as the correlation between its price and inherent value is notably complex. The price of Bitcoin isn't a passive reflection of its value - it actively influences the value in a cyclical pattern, contributing to its distinctive 'boom and bust' nature.
Bitcoin Mining
Before we delve into the reflexive nature of Bitcoin, it's important to understand the dynamics of Bitcoin mining. Miners receive Bitcoin for securing each block on the network. It's important to note that miners are compensated in Bitcoin, so when the Bitcoin price surges, the selling pressure from miners escalates linearly in dollar terms.
When Bitcoin price surges, it incentivizes more mining, thereby enhancing network security. Typically, miners must sell their Bitcoin to cover operational expenses. This situation establishes an intriguing dynamic: as prices rise, more money flows to miners who then sell their Bitcoin, creating downward pressure on the price. This selling activity quickly counterbalances the buying pressure, establishing a new temporary equilibrium.
Moreover, miners are active market participants and can be opportunistic based on their forecast of the future Bitcoin price. In a bullish market, they can quickly accumulate a buffer, and if they expect prices to rise further, they can choose to withhold a portion of their newly mined coins for future sales. Conversely, in a bearish market where prices plummet (and miners anticipate further decline), they typically liquidate their holdings immediately.
The crux of this dynamic is a unique feature of Bitcoin known as "the halving," which happens every four years and cuts mining rewards in half. This event reduces the immediate selling pressure from miners, allowing for potential price rises and the creation of a new boom cycle.
However, there eventually comes a point where the price inflates to such an extent that miners earn significantly. They then opt to sell all newly mined coins and their accumulated inventory, exerting considerable selling pressure on the market. Typically, this happens when prices have already surged dramatically, implying most people have already invested and leaving limited additional buying pressure.
This feedback mechanism, which bridges Bitcoin's price with its mining ecosystem, is a crucial element of Bitcoin's reflexive nature and aids in explaining its tendency to oscillate in boom and bust cycles.
The Reflexive Nature of Bitcoin
Enhanced Network Security: Increased prices incentivize more mining activity, fortifying Bitcoin's network security in the process. A larger miner pool shields the network from potential attacks and fosters a perception of Bitcoin as a safe asset.
Price-Driven Narratives: Surging prices inspire and reinforce narratives around Bitcoin's value and potential. Notable examples include 'Digital Gold', symbolizing Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation; 'Banking the Unbanked', highlighting Bitcoin's role in providing financial services to those outside the traditional banking system; 'Apolitical Money', underscoring Bitcoin's independence from government control; and the emerging narrative, ‘Bitcoin will be the Money of AIs’.
Role of Speculators: Speculators often amplify Bitcoin's reflexivity. An increase in price lures speculators in, anticipating quick profits, while a decrease triggers their exit, resulting in sharper price movements.
Adoption Curve: The rise in Bitcoin's price broadens its reach into the public consciousness, enhancing its potential for widespread adoption. Each significant price jump corresponds to an increase in Bitcoin's awareness and a rise in businesses considering its integration.
Investment and Innovation: Higher prices attract investment into the crypto sector from various sources, particularly venture capitalists. This influx of capital accelerates sector innovation and amplifies the narratives surrounding Bitcoin. As a result, these narratives and investments may entice more people to enter the crypto sector, advancing its development and growth.
Regulatory Changes: The impact of regulatory changes on Bitcoin's price is substantial. Positive changes, or even the anticipation thereof, can boost prices. Conversely, regulatory pushbacks or potential threats can trigger sharp price drops. For instance, the ongoing discussion about a Bitcoin ETF is noteworthy, and the market still remembers the major clampdown on crypto exchanges following the FTX scandal. Regulatory changes often occur at the end of a boom period and must be navigated during the subsequent bust, paving the way for the next boom period.
And remember, the next Bitcoin 'halving' event, a pivotal moment in Bitcoin's lifecycle that effectively halves the reward for mining new blocks, is expected to take place on April 24, 2024.